World Economic Outlook

The presidential election is coming up this Tuesday and the world is fixed on the results of the election. Whether it be Obama/Biden or Romney/Ryan doesn't matter... because there's a lot of work to be done and no one man will be able to change the economic outlook for the US or the global economy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) just released its assessment of the global economy and identified two critical issues that could effect the recovery of the global economy. The euro-zone crisis and the "fiscal cliff" threat faced by Europe and United States, respectively.

Europe needs to contain its money woes and increase stability for its currency. The country is experiencing "capital flight" where the money is leaving the country in search of a safe haven. Normally, the United States would be a sure safe haven but we also are experiencing our own woes in the form of pending tax increases, raising the debt ceiling (for about the 11th time in 8yrs), and automatic spending cuts. The United States has raised its debt ceiling for over 140 times since 1940 - Office of Management and Budget.

The World Economic Outlook report can be found here: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/02/index.htm

The IMF expects advanced economies to grow at least 2% - which the US has done, but unfortunately most of America's growth is due to government spending on mostly military goods/services. Which is somewhat interesting since the spending has been done right before an election year. Nevertheless, unemployment remains high and companies continue to hoard cash due to uncertainty running amok in the marketplace.

A Solution for You: There is a way for you to take advantage of this situation for your own benefit. Invest in commodities such as oil and agriculture products. Investing in commodities is how you can make some money no matter who's elected or if the economy turns up for the better or turns down for the worse.

If the economy gets worse, central banks will print even more money trying to stabilize the global economy... the result of their printing will devalue the currency and cause prices to increase. When prices increase your investments increase. If the economy gets better, then the increase in demand for commodities will increase as people will have more money to spend and corporations will need to use more resources for expansion.

BE FREE

Financial Analytics: Predicting Future Trends By Analyzing Historical Data

Financial analytics is a set of tools or system that is used effectively to increase a company's profitability. By assessing and collecting information related to various aspects of your business opportunity decision making becomes smoother and ultimately more beneficial for the company. Once the data has been collected it is usually displayed through charts and graphs so that complex information becomes visually much easier to understand. It also seeks to analyze the data and predict future trends and behavioral patterns. Many executives are using financial analytics to solve their business problems.

It can also be accurately defined as the process of evaluating businesses, projects, budgets and other finance-related entities to determine their suitability for investment. Typically, financial analysis is used to analyze whether an entity is can reap large profits or eventually turn into a loss. When looking at a specific company, the financial analyst will often focus on the income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement.Another essential feature is assessing a company's past performance to determine whether the future performance of the company will be a success. The focus today is on getting timely relevant information that can enable professionals to take better decisions and consequently improve the company's performance.

Financial analytics can be done to assess the following elements of a firm 1) profitability -an ability to earn income and sustain growth 2) Solvency- an ability to pay creditors in the long term 3) stability- the company's ability to survive and stay at the top of the business for a long time. It also involves comparison of the performances of two or more firms.

Financial executives must now think beyond the traditional financial information and switch over from general ledger systems and decide how best to provide for the measures and analytical methods required to formulate decisions and plans.

To achieve financial objectives developing data warehouses integrated with advanced analytics will prove to be very useful. This refers to this advanced ability to support decisions. In today's competitive environment executives are finding more and more ways in which the financial function can bring in greater money to an organization.

Finance functions are becoming more and more efficient by the day they require fewer resources to manage them and more easily align with the business structure of an organization. Business organizations are updating their business processes allowing users to access and collect information from any geographic location

How To Get Free Silver - A Guide To Free Junk Silver

Silver prices are going up and with this rise in prices its becoming more expensive than ever to buy silver bullion. Unless you have a large bankroll its going become much harder to purchase silver in bulk as silver isn't 5$ an ounce like it use to be. You might not know about this but its still possible right now to still get free silver without having to pay for it. I have for months been grabbing thousands of dollars in free silver for the face value of the coin from many banks around my area. This is a simple guide I am writing up that has made me thousands of dollars in one month finding free silver that I am giving out for you to be able to use yourself.

Junk silver is the term given to coins such as dimes, nickles, quarters, half dollars, and dollar coins that have silver inside them. The US Mint used to mint all of these coins with some silver before discontinuing this after the cost to produce these coins far exceeded the coins face value. These coins are still circulating around in change, tills, and banks all across the United States. The method I use to find change is by going to banks and asking for rolls of half dollars, and dollar coins as they are the largest and carry the most silver inside them. Any of these coins that are pre 1965 have 90% silver made up inside them, while before 1971 they have 40% silver inside them. Search through the rolls of coins and keep the ones that have the silver while putting the rest of the clad coins into a pile. After you have separated the silver, from the clad you need to go back to the bank an return the coins that don't have any silver inside them. Most banks have Coinstar machines you can use for free without having any charges taken out of the coins you put in. Just remember to rinse and repeat this method again and again from many different banks so that the bank doesn't ask to many questions. Month by month you should be collecting thousands of dollars in silver for the face value of the coins you kept. You can then choose to sell the coins to buyers, or keep the silver to be sold at a later date. Just remember to sell on a peak when the prices is high, and not a dip when the price is down.

The Gann Technique in Today's Trading

Traders today may follow the gann analysis when trading in any market. Although this method refers to mathematical principles, it is basically used more on forecasting market trends and not on the trading activities per se. Just like Gann himself, traders can filter information about the market and concentrate on studying where the trend is going instead. As a trader, he made used of indicators that reflected the hourly, the daily or the weekly movements of the prices in the market.

The three day trend lines that he used indicate that a one-day line indicator may have more swings than the other two days. Traders can also ascertain the direction or the trend by looking into the highest and the lowest prices over a definite period of time. The Gann technique may be used by traders who would like to concentrate on the swing type of trading. There are specific swing patterns as well as retracement points that can be expected to happen in between given trading periods. Traders have to be keen in making moves once they are able to follow through the patterns of highs and lows.

Gann did not pay much attention to the opening or the closing positions when developing charts (Gann trading software), but instead he concentrated on marking the highs and the lows which he connected through a line indicator. Traders who would like to succeed in using his technique have to abide by the rules such as trading by the trend lines that are indicated. However, it is important for them to realize that even if their trend line indicates that the market is up, this may not actually reflect what is happening in the market at a given time. Traders though can decide to buy after they see that the market has confirmed that they indeed have a double bottom. They can sell on the other hand if the market confirms a double top.

There are still other rules that traders have to follow if they would like to be swing trader like Gann. It may take them some time before they can master this trading technique in order for them to earn higher profits from their activities. People who are new in the trading market can be aided by software programs that can help them in creating charts with accurate data. However, there is still a need for new traders to learn and to understand how they can benefit from using the Gann technique in analyzing the market trends.

The Value of the US Dollar

The Federal Reserve Board is printing money at an unprecedented rate. The ECB is following suit. The Bank of England and China are both cutting rates to spur their economies and global sovereign debt is piling up like manure behind the elephant pen. Clearly, our currency is being devalued by the day. Some would argue that there's a race to devalue among the major global currencies as the G7 nations attempt to boost exports and spur their respective domestic economies. Tangible assets like gold and silver or soybeans and crude oil may be the only true stores of value left in an increasingly wayward world. We read this every day. The truth is far less dramatic. In an ugly world, the U.S. Dollar is the prettiest of the ugly sisters at the ball.

The U.S. Dollar Index is exactly where it was four years ago. This is interesting considering that the aggregate money supply in the U.S. as a result of the quantitative easing programs has nearly doubled since the housing market collapsed. Theoretically, doubling the supply of U.S. Dollars should mean that each new dollar is worth half as much. Take this one step further and it's logical to assume that if each new dollar is worth half as much then it should take twice as many dollars to make the same purchases that were made in 2008 yet, the Consumer Price Index is only 4.5% higher than it was then. Finally, I would suggest that considering the growth of the money supply and its characteristic devaluation, we should see an influx of foreign direct investment picking up U.S. assets at bargain basement prices. While logical, this is also incorrect as the U.S. Department of Commerce shows that foreign direct investment only exceeded U.S. investment abroad in 6 out of the last 20 years with 2005 as the most recent.

What has happened through the artificial manipulation of interest rates in the world's largest market is that the U.S. Dollar has begun attracting large amounts of money as U.S. and global investors park their cash while waiting for clarification on the world's major financial and political issues. Real interest rates in the U.S. are negative at least 10 years out. The Euro Zone is no closer to resolution. China is in the midst of changing leadership in a softening economy. Finally, what was an assured re-election of President Obama is now a legitimate race.

The inflows to the U.S. Dollar are easily tracked through the commercial trader positions published weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The U.S. Dollar Index contract has a face value of $100,000 dollars. Commercial traders have purchased more than 25,000 contracts in the last few weeks, now parking an additional $25 billion dollars. The build in this position can also be seen in their selling of the Euro, Japanese Yen and Canadian Dollars. The Dollar Index is made up of these currencies by 57%, 13% and 9%, respectively. Collectively, commercial selling in these markets adds another $5 billion to their long U.S. Dollar total. The magnitude of these moves makes commercial traders the most bullish they've been on the U.S. Dollar since August of last year which immediately led to a 7.5% rally in the U.S. Dollar in September.

The degree of bullishness by the commercial traders in the U.S. Dollar forces us to examine the markets most closely related to it in order to monitor the spillover effect a rally in the Dollar might create. The stock market has traded opposite the Dollar for all but four weeks in the last two years. The last time these markets traded in the same direction on a monthly basis is August of 2008. The current correlation values of -.29 weekly and -.43 monthly suggest that for every 1% higher the Dollar moves, the S&P500 should fall by.29% and.43%, respectively. Therefore, a bullish Dollar outlook must be coupled with a bearish equity market forecast.

Finally, we see the same type of relationship building in the Treasury markets. The U.S. Dollar is positively correlated to the U.S. Treasury market. This makes all the sense in the world considering foreign holdings of U.S. debt have increased over 5% through the first seven months of 2012 (Fed's most recent data). The bulk of these foreign purchases of U.S. debt are repatriated immediately to eliminate currency exchange risk. This process of sterilization forces interest rates and the Dollar to trade in roughly the same direction. This relationship turned briefly negative between April and June of this year on a weekly basis while one has to go back to March of 2010 to find a negative correlation at the monthly level.

Obviously, the trade here is to buy the U.S. Dollar. The negative speculative sentiment coupled with the bullish and growing position of the commercial traders could fuel a forceful rally. Small speculators typically accumulate their largest positions and are the most wrong at the major turning points. A recent study in the Wall Street Journal discussing individual traders' biggest mistakes puts it succinctly. Small traders' biggest mistakes, accounting for 60% of the total responses are being too late to get in and too cautious to take the next trade. Once burnt from exiting the last trade too late, the small investor is too scared jump in the next trade which reinforces the negative feedback loop they typically end up stuck in. Take advantage of this analysis and at least, prepare yourself with an alternate game plan.

Podcasts and the Future

The real value of the Commitment of Traders or COT Report for silver traders, (as Ted Butler, GATA, and others have been pointing out for years) lies in revealing the marked concentration of short silver futures positions held by the major bullion banks, who are classed as commercial traders.

Some observers predict that the Commodities Futures Trading Commission or CFTC will eventually simply hide this data or even change the classification like they have done in the past.

Of course, this would probably only serve to destroy confidence in the silver futures market once and for all.

The Issues for Silver Longs

For the long holder, the concentration of shorts is the main issue, and not simply:

Banks hedging positions in the futures market against client business that leaves them long. Yes, banks typically have little choice but to cover long positions with short positions for risk management purposes, as well as for the sake of earning a profit to provide shareholders with value. Swaps. Dealers' positions being taken on or off or played both ways. No limits on positions.

These details simply detract from the core issue of market manipulation and lend credence or play into to the conspiracy phobia prompted by the mainstream media.

Most traders can use the COT Report to observe changes in positioning without worrying about the concentration structure. This could explain why the CFTC remains silent about this key issue, and why the CFTC has not done away with or dramatically altered the COT Report to hide it.

Effectively, there are only a few large commercial traders (i.e. bullion banks) selling silver futures against a huge variety of longs.

No Great Conspiracy?

This manipulation may be easier to see when looked at from the perspective of an attempted long market corner. Who cares what the Hunts were doing with the other side of their long position? The issue for regulators was the Hunts' concentrated long position.

In this case, the real pink elephant on the couch, which shows up clearly in the COT data put out by the CFTC, is that the majority of the outstanding short position in silver futures is held by only one or two commercial traders.

Nevertheless, somehow 'hedging' - which is another word often thrown around loosely (like conspiracy) by mainstream media - makes this concentration 'okay'.

Yet when two large shorts hold 60 percent of the entire sell side of a relatively thin market against a whole crowd of diverse longs, something questionable is definitely going on. The Hunts were chastised and persecuted for doing this on the long side, so why not the heavily short bullion banks?

Can you imagine if oil or copper had the same market commitment profile or IBM for that matter? Sure, there may be naked shorts in those markets, but the shorts are as diverse as the longs, which is how things should be in a fair and balanced market.

It really does not matter if those two heavily short entities are hedged elsewhere. The illegal and immoral concentration of positions still exists in the silver market.

The Confidence Question

Not only does this concentration create an artificially depressed price reality for silver, but it also prevents the investing public from noticing an otherwise healthy way of avoiding wealth destruction by using silver as a non-paper inflation hedge.

Additional dangers of this concentration include:

Big shorts throwing caution to the wind. Shorting is a treacherous game that has potentially unlimited losses. Who else but the big banks could afford to take this kind of risk?

Of course, the real danger here is the unlimited down side risk inherent in short positions potentially triggering a daisy-chain of derivatives-led bank failures. This risk scenario could result in a much bigger systemic problem that would send shock waves reverberating throughout the already fragile world financial system.

For more articles like this, and to stay updated on the most important economic, financial, political and market events related to silver and precious metals, visit http://www.silver-coin-investor.com